Summary of the first three quarterly reports of photovoltaic industry

Core view: photovoltaic sector rose 48.51% in the first three quarters, ranking the third

Photovoltaic sector rose 48.51% in the first three quarters of 2019, outperforming CSI 30021.61 PCT, exceeding the average of CITIC power equipment industry, only lower than CITIC food and beverage and electronic components, ranking third. Among them, manufacturing enterprises such as Dongfang Risheng, Longji, Zhonghuan and Tongwei increased significantly.

Revenue of the segment was + 27.39% year-on-year, and non performance was + 35.38% year-on-year, with obvious differentiation in subdivisions

In the first three quarters, 27 photovoltaic listed companies achieved revenue of 148.3 billion yuan, up + 27.39% year-on-year, and net profit of 13.764 billion yuan, up + 35.38% year-on-year. The performance of subdivisions is differentiated. The growth rate of net profit of manufacturing sector and auxiliary material sector is 54.21% and 54.25% respectively. The growth rate of the two sectors continues to increase compared with the first half of the year, which supports the growth of non net profit of photovoltaic industry as a whole. The growth rate of non attributable net profit of equipment sector was 7.32%, that of power station operation was - 4.6%, and that of BOS sector was - 6.54%, which to some extent slowed down the overall profit growth of photovoltaic industry.

Industry roe rebounded sharply, profitability improved, and leading advantages highlighted

In the first three quarters of 2019, the roe of photovoltaic industry rebounded sharply to 9.32% from 7.84% in the same period last year, mainly driven by the increase of net sales interest rate. In the first three quarters, the industry's net sales interest rate was 10.76%, an increase of 1.06pct compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters, roe of Longji and Tongwei were 16.5% and 14.04%, respectively. They are in the leading position in the industry, the strong ones are always strong, and the leading companies also have better performance in collection ability and income quality.

In the future, the demand of overseas market is expected to continue to grow, and the domestic project starts to drive the installation

According to customs data, China's component exports in the first three quarters were nearly 50gw, up + 80% year on year. According to our calculation, the new installed capacity of overseas photovoltaic in 2019 is about 96gw. According to the national energy administration, in the first three quarters, 15.99gw of new photovoltaic installed capacity was added nationwide. With the follow-up of photovoltaic power generation bidding project, the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to further improve in the fourth quarter and early next year. According to the photovoltaic industry, the construction plan of photovoltaic power generation in 2020 is expected to be issued as soon as possible, so as to allow sufficient time for achieving the target of next year's installation. In addition, if the comprehensive parity policy is implemented in 2021, the overall decline of subsidies will lead to the emergence of rush installation in the photovoltaic industry next year.

Supply chain prices stop falling and stabilize, and corporate profits are expected to bottom out and pick up

Pvinfolink data shows that the price of silicon material has also stopped falling and stabilized, and the increase of demand in 2020 is expected to drive the price of silicon material up. After the price of single crystal perc battery bottomed at the end of August, the price kept stable or increased slightly for 9 consecutive weeks. The mainstream price of the latest single / double-sided single crystal perc battery was 0.94 yuan / W, up 0.02 yuan / W and 0.01 yuan / W respectively compared with last week. We expect that driven by the reasonable price difference of monocrystal and polycrystal cells, the price of monocrystal cells will maintain stability or rise slightly, which will improve the battery business profitability of photovoltaic enterprises.

Investment suggestion

Continue to recommend the photovoltaic sector, continue to recommend the global silicon material and battery chip leader Tongwei Co., Ltd., monocrystalline silicon chip and component leader Longji Co., Ltd., inverter and photovoltaic power station leader sunshine power supply, etc., and focus on Zhonghuan Co., Daquan new energy, Xinyi solar energy, fulette, foster, Dongfang Risheng, Chint electric and photovoltaic equipment enterprises Jingsheng Electromechanical, Jiejia Weichuang (mechanical group coverage) ), Maiwei shares, etc. (covered by mechanical group).

Risk warning

The industry competition is intensified, the industry policy is fluctuating, and the construction progress of photovoltaic project is less than expected.